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What to keep in mind when the world feels uncertain

Global conflict can make KiwiSaver balances look unsettling in a hurry. Recent reporting has pointed to market volatility linked to the war involving Iran, with investors warned to expect short-term ups and downs as markets react to uncertainty, higher oil prices and wider economic risks.

Please note:  This article is intended to provide general information to help members understand current events and how they may affect KiwiSaver balances. It is not personalised financial advice. Whether your KiwiSaver settings are right for you depends on your own goals, timing and circumstances.

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Expert-Sourced Guidance

This article has been prepared using recent New Zealand reporting and commentary from regulators and investment providers, including the Financial Markets Authority (FMA), Fisher Funds, Generate, Simplicity and ANZ, alongside other current industry resources.

Our role is to help members better understand what market volatility can mean, what questions may be worth asking, and when to seek personalised advice.

 

Why KiwiSaver balances can move around in times like these

KiwiSaver funds are invested in financial markets, and markets do not like uncertainty. When major global events raise concerns about oil prices, inflation, trade or growth, sharemarkets can fall quickly and investors often move money into so-called safer assets.

Simplicity said these reactions are typical when geopolitical uncertainty rises, while also noting that equity markets had so far been pricing a more contained scenario than some first feared.

That does not automatically mean something has gone badly wrong with your KiwiSaver. It usually means markets are reacting to risk and to uncertainty about what happens next

 

Volatility can feel personal, but it is not unusual

When your balance drops, it can feel immediate and personal.

But market falls are not unusual, especially when there is a major global shock. Simplicity pointed to events such as Covid-19, the Global Financial Crisis, 9/11 and the Gulf War as reminders that markets have been through sharp falls before.

The FMA has also said diversified portfolios and sound investment management have shown an ability to recover strongly from downturns over time.

“While investment markets are volatile, the data highlights the ability of diversified portfolios and sound investment management to recover strongly from downturns.”
- Financial Markets Authority

 

Why rushed decisions can be costly

One of the biggest risks during volatile periods is switching funds in the middle of a downturn and then missing the recovery that follows.

ANZ says many investors who switched out of growth-oriented funds during the Covid-related market falls missed out on the rebound that came afterwards.

Its March 2026 guidance says that if you are in the right fund for your circumstances, patience matters in unsettling times.

Simplicity makes a similar point, saying that reacting to daily balance movements or trying to time the market rarely leads to better outcomes.

Instead, it says investors should focus on the things they can control: whether their fund choice matches their risk appetite and time horizon, and whether they can keep contributing.

 

What members can do

1. Step back before making a switch

A short-term fall in your balance can create a strong urge to “do something.”  But a big decision made in a stressful moment is not always a good one.

Before changing funds, it can help to pause and ask: has my situation actually changed, or am I reacting to scary headlines?

ANZ says trying to pick the best time to change funds comes with risk, and that patience is often the better strategy during unsettled periods.

2. Check whether your fund still matches your timeframe

This is probably the most useful question in the whole guide.  If retirement is still a long way off, short-term volatility may matter less than it feels right now.

If you are planning to use your KiwiSaver sooner for retirement or another withdrawal, market falls can be more relevant.

ANZ’s guidance says it is especially important to check you are in the right fund if you expect to need your money soon. Simplicity says the same basic principle applies: make sure your fund choice matches your risk appetite and time horizon.

3.  Seek personalised advice if you are close to using the money

This is the group that may need to pay closest attention.

If you are nearing retirement, planning a first-home withdrawal, or otherwise expect to need your KiwiSaver in the near future, getting personalised advice may be more important than trying to interpret market moves on your own.

That is not because volatility means disaster, but because timing matters more when access to the money is closer.

4.  Remember that KiwiSaver funds are usually diversified

Another reason not to focus too heavily on a few bad headlines is that KiwiSaver funds are generally not built around one single market or one single risk. ANZ notes that diversified funds typically hold a mix of shares, bonds, cash, property and infrastructure, which can help soften the effect of falls in any one area.

5.  Keep perspective on regular contributions

Provider commentary has also highlighted that regular contributions can still matter during downturns.

ANZ says continuing to contribute through a market fall can mean buying investments at lower prices.

The FMA’s reporting also points to the long-term value of staying invested through periods of volatility and recovery.

6.  Review your comfort with risk...honestly

Sometimes volatility reveals that a fund is not actually a good fit, even if it looked fine when markets were calm.

That does not mean you should switch immediately, but it may be a sign that your risk settings deserve a more careful review.

This is where the current market wobble can still be useful: it can tell you something real about how comfortable you are with ups and downs.

 

Final Thoughts from us

Volatility is never comfortable, especially when it is linked to frightening world events.

But a falling balance over a short period is not the same thing as a long-term outcome.

For many members, the most useful response is to understand what is happening, avoid rushed decisions, and make sure their KiwiSaver settings still match their real-life goals and timeframe.

However, if you are nearing retirement, planning a first-home withdrawal, or otherwise expect to need your KiwiSaver in the near future, we recommend yopu speak to your provider or get personalised advice from a financial adviser.  

 

 

Sources used in preparing this article

 

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Written by: Alan Sharpe

Alan is a key member of the HealthCarePlus leadership team. With over 30 years experience in marketing and customer service roles he is a passionate advocate for the union movement and HealthCarePlus’s mission to create real, lasting value for their members

 

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